References to Moore’s Law abound when people speak about the
Singularity. The author has deemed it
wise to make a brief explanation of this significant observation about the
increasing efficiency of computers over the years.
The Essence of Moore’s Law
In 1965, Gordon E. Moore wrote a paper in which he described
a trend in the increase in computing power. That computing power was increasing
was obvious to most people who thought for any amount of time about the
subject. That there was a pattern in this growth was not so obvious. Moore was
a co-founder of the computer company Intel, so his observation was notable.
Simply put, Moore had studied the data and noticed that the
integrated circuits on which computers rely tended to double their capacity for
microprocessors about every two years. This was not something planned but
rather the result of intense competition between various companies that were
making smaller and smaller microprocessors so that the integrated circuits in
their computers could possess more speed and power.
What Are Integrated Circuits and Microprocessors?
An integrated circuit is basically what people refer to when
they speak of a microchip. It is actually a set of circuits embedded in one
small chip of silicon. The earliest computers did not actually use these types
of circuits. They were invented in 1949 by a German engineer but not immediately
applied in industry. Through the next decade the advantages of this development
became generally known and replicated.
A microprocessor, or transistor, is a unit of these circuits
made form a semiconductor material such as silicon. Each transistor is able to
perform critical tasks for a computer, controlling signals and even amplifying
them. More transistors means more capability and speed.
What Does This Mean in Terms of Technology?
The significance of all this for the average person is in
the rapid advances in various types of technology that seem to be newsworthy
almost every day. The doubling of computing power approximately every two years
has continued almost uninterrupted since the 1960s. This has enabled machines
to do an exponentially increasing amount of work.
A great example of the power behind this growth in computing
power is the story surrounding the Human Genome project. When this program formally
began in 1990, skeptics doubted the ability of those involved to make meaningful
progress in counting, mapping and identifying the total number of genes inn
human DNA. Progress was meager during the first few years. However, the pace of
this progress picked up along with the increase in computing power. Sudden
advances were made after several years and the project was declared complete in
2003.
As a result of this increasing capacity and the shrinking of
microprocessors, various advance shave been made in science and industry. The average
individual should have noted over the past decade how personal computing became
more and more powerful while the sizes of the devices involved became ever
smaller.
A man in his 40s now was born during the Moon landings. He probably
grew up without a personal computer in the home and may not have even seen one
in school. He now owns a smart phone that can do more than the computers that
sent men to the Moon and brought them back.
The End of Moore’s Law
This increase in power cannot continue forever, though,
along the same lines. The walls of the circuits involved cannot achieve
negative thinness. That is to say that such borders must be at least a few
atoms in thickness or lose their ability to conduct signals effectively. Furthermore,
as this “here be dragons” point is approached, the difficulty of maintain the
pace of the advance increases as well. Computers will still be able to become faster
and more powerful but they will have to do this by increasing the number of
chips rather than simply squeezing more microprocessors onto the same number of
such chips.
Some experts believe that we are already reaching this stage
of development. Other theorists have already seen, though, possible ways of outmaneuvering
some limitations and continuing to increase power while reducing size.
No matter where you think that this course of progress will
end, it is obvious that the future holds immense possibility for continuing
advances thanks to the growing power of convenient computing. Indeed, the
advances already made have not become widespread enough or really sunk into the
popular conscious. Consider 3-D printing, which is only beginning to make
headlines. Even if the advances in squeezing microprocessors into microchips stopped
dead right now, there would still be a wealth of knowledge to be gained by the
advanced systems already in place.
